Does anyone have a theory as to why countries don't just antibody test all the athletes and attendees that went to the World Military games in Wuhan in October and compare notes? It would be even better to spot check anyone that is known to have returned from Wuhan any time after October, but just testing the athletes gives you 10k people which is easily enough to establish (or not) a proximal time of origin.
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-france-fears-virus-may-have-spread-in-october-after-military-games-in-wuhan/news-story/b55680fc3b6a11b8c258317d3454961b
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Military_World_Games
It seems pretty clear that a lot of athletes came back sick with "something" bad, and being athletes and mostly younger they are in a demographic that would mostly have been mild or asymptomatic if it was COVID.
Plus being athletes and military there are probably enough blood samples from November/December that for the people with positive antibody tests you could also look at old blood samples which prove the time of infection.
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